Quinnipiac poll shows 6-point Sherrill lead in NJ governor race

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The basics:

• Quinnipiac poll shows Sherrill leading Ciattarelli 50% to 44% among likely voters
• Ciattarelli supporters show slightly higher enthusiasm (91%)
• Women back Sherrill 57% to 36%; men favor Ciattarelli 53% to 42%
• Sherrill leads on honesty & empathy; Ciattarelli stronger on economy

With less than three weeks to go before Election Day, the New Jersey gubernatorial race is entering its most critical phase.

Recent polls have largely shown Democrat Mikie Sherrill leading Republican Jack Ciattarelli by between 6–10 points, though a recent Emerson survey had the race as a dead heat.

With both debates now in the rearview mirror, the contest has grown increasingly combative as both campaigns step up their closing arguments — and attack lines.

The latest poll, released Oct. 15 by Quinnipiac University Poll, finds Sherrill ahead 50% to 44% among likely voters (Libertarian Vic Kaplan and Socialist Worker candidate Joanne Kuniansky each draw 1%).

The poll surveyed 1,327 likely New Jersey voters between Oct. 9–13, with a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points.

That 6-point lead shows a slightly tighter race versus Quinnipiac’s Sept. 17 poll, which had Sherrill up 49% to 41%.

Voter turnout

“The raucous debates are done, the attack ads are everywhere, and the race is close, with Sherrill holding a slight advantage,” said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy. “As the clock ticks down to Election Day, voter enthusiasm will translate into turnout. For the moment, in that category, Ciattarelli has an edge.”

Among Ciattarelli supporters, 91% say they are enthusiastic about supporting him — including 55% who are very enthusiastic. That compares to 86% enthusiasm among Sherrill’s backers, with 42% saying they’re very enthusiastic.

Party lines remain firmly drawn: 92% of Democrats support Sherrill, while 94% of Republicans back Ciattarelli. Independents lean narrowly toward Ciattarelli, 48% to 42%. Gender gaps are also clear: women favor Sherrill 57% to 36%, while men back Ciattarelli 53% to 42%.

Key findings from the poll:

• Favorability
  • Sherrill 43% favorable 38% unfavorable 18% haven’t heard enough
  • Ciattarelli 39% favorable 46% unfavorable 13% haven’t heard enough
• Property Taxes
  • If Sherrill is elected governor
    • 44% say property taxes will go up
    • 5% say they’ll go down
    • 45% say they’ll stay about the same
  • If Ciattarelli is elected governor
    • 37% say property taxes will go up
    • 14% say they’ll go down
    • 40% say they’ll stay about the same
• Handling of Top Issues
  • Schools
    • Sherrill 50%
    • Ciattarelli 41%
    • No opinion 9%
  • NJ Transit
    • Sherrill 48%
    • Ciattarelli 38%
    • No opinion 14%
  • Public safety
    • Sherrill 45%
    • Ciattarelli 45%
    • No opinion 10%
  • Economy
    • Sherrill 44%
    • Ciattarelli 47%
    • No opinion 8%
• Honesty & Empathy
  • More honest
    • Sherrill 45%
    • Ciattarelli 38%
    • No opinion 17%
  • Better understands “people like me”
    • Sherrill 49%
    • Ciattarelli 41%
    • No opinion 10%

Background check

Matchups

NJBIZ was on hand for both gubernatorial debates. Get the wrap-up here: