Emerson poll shows razor-thin margin in NJ governor race

Listen to this article

Just ahead of Election Day, the final Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill poll is out, finding a very tight New Jersey gubernatorial race between candidates Democrat Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli.

The survey of 1,000 New Jersey very likely voters/those who have already voted took place Oct. 25–28 (margin of error +/- 3 points). It shows Sherrill with 49% support and Ciattarelli with 48% support, and just 2% undecided.

These findings echo the previous Emerson poll in terms how close the race is, which in September had support for Sherrill and Ciattarelli at 43% each, with 11% undecided.

In this latest survey, when the undecideds’ support is accounted for, support for Sherrill increases to 50% while Ciattarelli stays at 48%.

As NJBIZ has reported, the polls have shown a narrowing race down the stretch – with several results also showing Sherrill up anywhere from five to nine points.

The new poll also gives insight to the gender divide in this race.

“Heading into Election Day, the gender divide in the gubernatorial election has solidified: men break for Ciattarelli by 16 points, while women break for Sherrill by 18 points,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. “Since last month, Ciattarelli’s lead among men increased by four points, and Sherrill’s lead among women grew by eight points.”

Key findings in the poll include:

Favorability ratings

• Sherrill
  • Favorable 47%
  • Unfavorable 47%

• Ciattarelli
  • Favorable 48%
  • Unfavorable 48%

Governor and presidential approval

• Gov. Phil Murphy
  • Approve 34%
  • Disapprove  50%
  • Neutral 16%
• President Donald Trump
  • Approve 45%
  • Disapprove 53%

Voting alignment by Murphy approval

• Among those who approve of Murphy, 97% back Sherrill
• Among those who disapprove of Murphy, 91% support Ciattarelli
• Among voters neutral on Murphy, Sherrill leads 79% to 12%

Top issues for New Jersey voters

• Economy 52%
• Threats to democracy 14%
• Housing affordability 11%
• Immigration policy5%
• Health care 5%

The full poll results can be found here.