Rutgers poll: NJ race tightens between Sherrill, Ciattarelli

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The latest Rutgers-Eagleton Poll shows a narrow race to become New Jersey’s next governor – with Democrat Mikie Sherrill leading Republican Jack Ciattarelli 50% to 45% among likely voters in the state.

The poll, conducted from Oct. 3–17, surveyed 795 likely voters (margin of error +/- 4.7%); with 3% saying they would vote for neither or someone else, and 2% still unsure.

Rutgers-Eagleton notes that the 5-point lead is within the margin of error. The findings also mirror other recent polls, which NJBIZ has reported on, showing Sherrill ahead by single digits. The 5-point lead also, notably, represents quite a tightening of the race from Rutgers-Eagleton. The hub had an initial post-primary poll showing Sherrill with a 20-point lead, followed by an August poll that had her up nine, before this one at five.

“As all eyes turn to New Jersey’s governor’s race as a test of the nation’s political mood, the contest has narrowed in its final weeks,” said Ashley Koning, an assistant research professor and director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers University-New Brunswick.

Key findings in the poll

Partisan breakdown

• 95% of Democrats support Sherrill
• 94% of Republicans support Ciattarelli
• Among Independents
  • 49% for Sherrill
  • 40% for Ciattarelli
  • 6% for neither/someone else
  • 5% unsure

Gender gap

• Women: 18 points more likely than men to back Sherrill – and 16 points less likely to support Ciattarelli

Race

• Non-Hispanic white voters: 53% Ciattarelli 46% Sherrill
• Nonwhite voters: 59% Sherrill 29% Ciattarelli

Age

• 18–34: 49% Sherrill 43% Ciattarelli
• 35–49: 53% Ciattarelli 39% Sherrill
• 50–64: 49% Sherrill 48% Ciattarelli
• 65+: 61% Sherrill 36% Ciattarelli

Education

• At least a college degree 61% Sherrill 35% Ciattarelli
• Some college or less 55% Ciattarelli 38% Sherrill

President Donald Trump’s influence

• Overall
  • 52% say Trump is a “major factor”
  • 14% “minor”
  • 34% “not a factor”
• By party
  • Democrats 78% major factor
  • Republicans 38% major factor
  • Independents
    •  42% major
    •  20% minor
    •  38% not a factor

Trust level on key issues

• Cost of living/affordability 42% Sherrill 41% Ciattarelli 
• Economy and jobs 46% Ciattarelli 40% Sherrill 
• State budget/government spending 45% Ciattarelli 39% Sherrill 
• Taxes 44% Ciattarelli 37% Sherrill
• Education and schools 47% Sherrill 40% Ciattarelli 
• Transportation/infrastructure 41% Sherrill 40% Ciattarelli 
• Health care 50% Sherrill 35% Ciattarelli 
• Crime and safety 49% Ciattarelli 35% Sherrill 

Favorability

• Sherrill 42% favorable 45% unfavorable 11% no opinion 2% don’t know her
• Ciattarelli 41% favorable 47% unfavorable 9% no opinion 2% don’t know him

Preference

• 43% think Sherrill will win
• 42% think Ciattarelli will
• 15% unsure

“Polls show a close race as voters tune in and opinions solidify, but the outcome will ultimately hinge on each campaign’s turnout operation,” said Koning. “This is especially true in off-year elections, which are usually accompanied by comparatively smaller and less predictable electorates.”

The full poll results are available here.