Is Jets’ Aaron Glenn already in over his head at 0-6?

It feels like we are already several years into this Jets season, which started with hopes of a new culture and competency only for the team to lose six straight games – including three in which they’ve blown leads in the fourth quarter.

And remarkably, after just six games Glenn is sitting near the top of the oddsmakers’ list of coaches with the best odds to be fired next – the sports books have him just behind embattled Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel who is in his fourth season in Miami.

But why? And can he fix it, or is the water already too deep?

We’ll answer that second question a little later.

But why is Glenn is at least perceived to be on the hot seat? Well, it’s a combination of factors starting with his public messaging and demeanor. His words simply and expectations he has set simply haven’t lined up with what we’ve seen on the field.

In his opening press conference, Glenn hinted the Jets would immediately look like a different team under his leadership.

“Listen, there are going to be some challenges, but with challenge comes opportunity,” Glenn said in his introductory statement back in January. “But here is what I do know, we are the freaking New York Jets, we are built for this s—.”

But the Jets have looked like the same team they did under previous regimes, finding a way to start 0-6 despite holding fourth-quarter leads in half of their games. Glenn has also been prickly at time when anything he says is questioned by reporters. And while he has wisely toned that down in recent weeks, it’s left room for angry fans to create a narrative that Glenn doesn’t get it.

And it’s clear, there’s already a portion of the fan base that doesn’t believe in Glenn and isn’t going to believe. Of course, that portion of the fan base that has already made a snap judgment after six games might want to ask itself why most of those who have left the Jets in recent years have found success elsewhere, before they decide that a guy trying to make deep changes to the culture is a failure after less than two months, but that’s beside the point.

For Glenn to actually be in danger of losing his job he would have to lose the locker room, and at this stage there isn’t much evidence of that happening. Yes, Garrett Wilson openly questioned Glenn’s strategy of running out the clock on the first half. But other players have consistently had Glenn’s back in public, including Breece Hall on Friday.

“I like that he’s a person who speaks with intentionality,” Hall said. “And that he’s a person who behind every word he speaks there’s a meaning to it and there’s action behind it. And he’s right.”

And while the Jets are making a lot of terrible mistakes, it’s hard to argue that they’ve quit on the season after Sunday’s defensive turnaround against the Broncos.

For those who believe a midseason coaching change might happen, consider that since Woody Johnson took over as owner in 2000 he never made a mid-season coaching change before last year’s decision to fire Robert Saleh after five games. Johnson is unpredictable, so we can’t rule out him doing it again. But given the heavy criticism Johnson rightfully faced after his strangely timed firing of Saleh, and the fact that one of the men who helped lead the coaching search that landed Glenn, former NFL exec Rick Speilman, was hired as a senior football advisor earlier this year, it seems unlikely the Jets would pull the plug on Glenn in the first season.

Also, league history tells us it’s unlikely.

In the last 25 years, 29 first-time NFL head coaches have started a season with five wins or fewer according to data looked up on Stathead.

Only three didn’t make it through their first season: Atlanta’s Bobby Petrino quit in 2007 with a 3-10 record to take a college job at Arkansas. The Jaguars fired Urban Meyer in 2021 with a 2-11 record. And the Broncos fired old friend Nathaniel Hackett in 2022 after he started 4-11.

All three of those tenures were far uglier than anything Glenn has shown to this point.

Is it possible the Jets could move on from Glenn after this season? Again, for the reasons above it seems unlikely. But there is some more precedent for that possibility.

Six first-time NFL coaches since 2000 have been fired after completing one full season:

Miami’s Cam Cameron (1-15 in 2007); Cleveland’s Ron Chudzinski (4-12 in 2012); San Francisco’s Jim Tomsula (5-11 in 2015); Arizona’s Steve Wilks, the Jets’ current defensive coordinator (3-13 in 2018); Houston’s David Culley (4-13 in 2021); and Las Vegas’ Antonio Pierce (4-13 in 2024).

But there are also plenty of coaches who have found a way to turn things around after winning four or fewer games in their first season on the job, including three who are employed after starting slow with their current team: the Bengal’s Zac Taylor (2-14 in 2019), the Cardinals Jonathan Gannon (4-13 in 2023), and, of course, Glenn’s old boss: Dan Campbell started 3-13-1 with the Lions back in 2021.

Glenn has talked repeatedly about that slow start and used it as proof that the Jets can turn things around. It’s not a great comparison, however, because that Lions team didn’t have the talent this Jets team has.

But it is proof that a slow start can be overcome – both Taylor and Campbell are among the seven first-time coaches who have rebounded from fewer than four wins in their first season to come back and post a winning season. Both have also led their teams to the multiple playoff appearances after starting with four or fewer wins. Unfortunately, they are the only coaches out of the 29 who started with fewer than four wins since 2000 to do so.

But if you include coaches who started their first year with five win, that number of coaches with multiple playoff appearances doubles.

So what does this all mean for Glenn? Yes, the season is over in terms of the 2025 Jets being a playoff team. But in terms of his future as the coach here, wins still matter. A lot.

And he needs to get one, and preferably more as soon as possible to start change the conversation before it clearly creeps into the locker room and starts to undermine him. Because with every loss before that first win, the questions, and doubts, and odds of a turnaround will only get louder and worse.