The basics:
- Quinnipiac poll finds Sherrill leading Ciattarelli 49% to 41%
- Sherrill leads by 8 points as first debate nears Sept. 21
- Taxes rank as top issue for 30% of likely NJ voters
- Independents split: 45% for Sherrill, 41% for Ciattarelli
The latest polling is out for New Jersey’s gubernatorial race, this one from Quinnipiac University, which has Democratic candidate Mikie Sherrill up eight points over Republican hopeful Jack Ciattarelli.
The poll, conducted from Sept. 11–15, surveyed 1,238 likely New Jersey voters (with a margin of sampling error of +/- 3.9%).
With third party candidates included, Quinnipiac says Sherrill receives 49% support versus 41% support for Ciattarelli; with Libertarian Party candidate Vic Kaplan and Socialist Worker Party candidate Joanne Kuniansky each receiving 1% support, 4% undecided and 2% no response.
Without third party candidates, Sherrill receives 51% support and Ciattarelli 42%; with 5% undecided and 2% no response.
This poll is in line with other recent gauges that also have found a tight race, with Sherrill leading by between 6% and 9%. It also comes ahead of a key moment in this pivotal race: Sunday’s first debate.
Key Quinnipiac poll findings:
- Party support
- Democrats back Sherrill 93% – 3%
- Republicans back Ciattarelli 90%-5%
- Independents are mixed, 45% support Sherrill and 41% are for Ciattarelli
- Gender
- Men 48% support Ciattarelli 44% Sherrill
- Women 55% Sherrill 35% Ciattarelli
- Enthusiasm
- 88% of Ciattarelli backers are either very enthusiastic (48%) or somewhat enthusiastic (40%)
- 85% of Sherrill supporters are either very enthusiastic (37%) or somewhat enthusiastic (48%)
- Favorability
- Sherrill
- 40% favorable
- 29% unfavorable
- 29% haven’t heard enough about her
- Ciattarelli
- 40% favorable
- 39% unfavorable
- 21% haven’t heard enough about him
- Sherrill
- Personal traits
- Cares about the needs and problems of people like you?
- Sherrill: 50% yes 35% no 15% no opinion
- Ciattarelli: 44% yes 43% no 13% no opinion
- Good leadership skills?
- Sherrill: 52% yes 26% no 22% no opinion
- Ciattarelli: 44% yes 35% no 21% no opinion
- Honest?
- Sherrill: 49% yes 24% no 27% no opinion
- Ciattarelli: 38% yes 37% no 26% no opinion
- Cares about the needs and problems of people like you?
- Most important issues (among 11 offered by pollsters)
- Taxes 30%
- Ethics in government 14%
- No other issues reached double digits
- Most important issues (by party)
- Republicans
- Taxes 40%
- Immigration 13%
- Crime 11%
- Democrats
- Ethics in government 20%
- Health care 18%
- Taxes 17%
- Inflation 12%
- Independents
- Taxes 37%
- Ethics in government 15%
- No other issue reached double digits
- Republicans
- Who would handle property taxes better (regardless of how they intend to vote)?
- Ciattarelli 46%
- Sherrill 40%
- No opinion 14%
- Which candidate would do a better job of handling electricity costs (regardless of how they intend to vote)?
The race is on
“With just under seven weeks to go, the race for the Trenton State House leans Sherrill’s way as Ciattarelli lags on three key character issues: honesty, empathy, and leadership,” said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.
He added, “With taxes topping the most important issue list, likely Garden State voters see Ciattarelli as slightly better suited to take on the perennial voter worry of property taxes.”
The poll also took a look at satisfaction and job approvals of sitting politicians.
- Satisfaction with the way things are going in N.J.
- 49% either very satisfied (8%) or somewhat satisfied (41%)
- 49% either somewhat dissatisfied (22%) or very dissatisfied (27%)
- President Donald Trump
- 41% approve the job he is doing
- 55% disapprove
- On New Jersey issues
- 50% would like to see the next governor mainly stand up to Trump
- 47% would like to see the next governor mainly work with Trump
- Gov. Phil Murphy 48% approve 44% disapprove
- Sen. Cory Booker 46% approve 43% disapprove
- Sen. Andy Kim 46% approve 27% disapprove 27% had no opinion
The full poll results can be found here.
